What Will the 2024 UK General Election Mean for UK Immigration?

It has finally come to pass; on 22^nd May, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced in a rainy Downing Street that the next UK general election would be held on 4^th July.

Declaring that the last five years had seen the country fight through “the most challenging times since the Second World War”, Mr Sunak claimed that “the plan and priorities” he had set out during his term as Prime Minister “are working”.

The speech also included several references to immigration. These included a claim that “migration is being weaponised by hostile states to threaten the integrity of our borders”, as well as that “immigration is finally coming down and we are stopping the boats [across the English Channel] with our Rwanda partnership.”

That last statement, of course, is debatable given that no flights have yet taken off to Rwanda as part of the scheme in the two years since the policy was unveiled.

Furthermore, Mr Sunak faces an apparently insurmountable challenge to even remain in post. Opinion polls have consistently shown that the opposition Labour Party could be on course to win a House of Commons majority surpassing even those achieved by Tony Blair at the 1997 and 2001 elections.

So, what is the general election likely to mean for immigration matters in the UK? Our award-winning specialists in UK immigration law here at Cranbrook Legal have taken a closer look at the leading parties’ pledges on the subject.

Immigration is clearly one of the major issues for UK voters

The four-and-a-half years since then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s resounding win at the polls in December 2019 – when his Conservative Party scored its biggest Parliamentary majority since Margaret Thatcher was in Number 10 – have been turbulent ones for the UK.

With Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, a cost-of-living crisis, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine having all buffeted the UK electorate since the former Spectator editor emerged triumphant, some observers could have been forgiven for presuming immigration would almost be a mere side issue in this election.

That has not, however, turned out to be the case. Britons evidently continue to be greatly concerned about immigration policy – as borne out by the May 2024 Ipsos Issues Index, which found that some 27% of voters named it as a top issue.

A recent YouGov poll undertaken for Sky News, meanwhile, discovered that 43% of Britons believed immigration had a negative impact on society, as opposed to the 35% of respondents who considered the effect of immigration to be net positive.

This backdrop makes it even more unsurprising that Nigel Farage, one of the populist architects of Brexit when he led the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) at the time of the European Union (EU) membership referendum in 2016, has decided to take the helm of the highly immigration-focused Reform UK party and stand for a seat in this election. So, with it being undeniable that immigration is a top issue for voters in this general election, what stances have the parties taken on the subject? Below, we’ve scrutinised the key pledges.

Can refugees vote in the 2024 UK election?

In and of itself, a migrant having refugee status in the UK does not give them the right to vote in the country’s elections, regardless of how long they have been in the UK. It is worth noting, too, that general elections are subject to stricter eligibility rules than local elections.

As things stand in June 2024, migrants only have the right to vote in UK general elections if they fulfil the following eligibility criteria:

Being registered to vote – the deadline for doing this for the 4^th July general election was 11:59pm on 18^th June
Being 18 years of age or older on the day of the election (“polling day”)
Being a British, Irish, or qualifying Commonwealth citizen
Being resident at an address in the UK or living in another country and registered as an overseas voter

Not being legally excluded from voting.

What pledges has the governing Conservative Party made on immigration?

At the time of this article being written, the Conservatives seemed very unlikely to form the next Government after the election.

An Electoral Calculus “poll of polls” on 21^st June suggested that the party was only likely to claim around 20% of the total votes, almost 20 percentage points behind the Labour Party. If borne out in the actual election, this may translate into only 76 seats in the House of Commons (as opposed to Labour’s 457 seats).

Nonetheless, the following were among the pledges made in the Conservatives’ 2024 election manifesto:

Establishing a “deterrent” to irregular migration. The party has said that if it wins the election, it will operate a “relentless, continual process of permanently removing illegal migrants to Rwanda with a regular rhythm of flights every month, starting in July, until the boats are stopped.”
Introducing a legally binding cap on migration, set on family and work visas. The Conservatives have said that this policy will allow for public services to be better protected, while ensuring businesses and the NHS can still access the skills they require. The manifesto doesn’t suggest a specific number at which the cap will be set; however, it does state that this will be at a level accounting for both the costs and benefits of migration.
Giving Parliament an annual vote on the level of the migration cap. The party has said that the cap will fall every year of the next Parliament, and “cannot be breached”.
Ruling out any return of freedom of movement. In the manifesto’s words, “unlike Labour, we won’t allow any form of free movement to return.” Given the Conservatives’ well-established Brexit stance of recent years, this is a spectacularly unsurprising announcement.
Preventing irregular migrants from bringing “spurious” legal challenges to block their removal from the UK. The Conservatives have said that this will be accomplished by “bringing our Illegal Migration Act into force”.

Clearing the asylum backlog. The manifesto pledged that all claims would be processed within six months, alongside the end of the use of hotels as temporary accommodation for asylum seekers.

What is the UK’s current immigration policy?

From 1^st January 2021, a major change occurred to the UK’s immigration policy, reflecting the country’s departure from the EU. Although the UK had ceased to be an EU member state on 31^st January 2020, it agreed to a transitional period whereby it would continue adhering to the bloc’s rules until 31^st December 2020.

In a policy statement issued in February 2020, the then-Government of the UK described the points-based system as “firm and fair”, adding that it would “attract the high-skilled workers we need to contribute to our economy, our communities and our public services.”

The points-based system was conceived on the basis of treating EU and non-EU citizens equally when they applied for visas to the UK. Since then, UK immigration policy has largely prioritised efforts to attract highly skilled workers such as scientists, engineers, and academics. The February 2020 policy statement said that the points-based system constituted a replacement for the EU’s freedom of movement rules. The Government added that it was seeking to “shift the focus of our economy away from a reliance on cheap labour from Europe and instead concentrate on investment in technology and automation. Employers will need to adjust.”

What pledges has the opposition Labour Party made on immigration?

There was no question that, at the time of typing, the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer was the heavy favourite to win the general election. The Oddschecker website suggested odds of 1/16 for the party to win an overall majority in the House of Commons, compared to 125/1 for the Conservatives, and 100/1 for Mr Farage’s Reform UK.

Labour made the following pledges on immigration:

Ending the “wasteful” Migration and Economic Development partnership with Rwanda. The party stated that the costs of the policy had already run into hundreds of millions of pounds, and that “even if it got off the ground, this scheme can only address fewer than one per cent of the asylum seekers arriving. It cannot work.”
Using the funding saved from canning the Rwanda scheme to create a new “Border Security Command”. According to the party, this will be staffed with “hundreds of new investigators, intelligence officers, and cross-border police officers”. The Command would operate internationally and be supported by “new counter-terrorism style powers, to pursue, disrupt, and arrest those responsible for the vile [people smuggling] trade.”
Seeking a new security agreement with the EU. Labour have said that such an arrangement would provide access to real-time intelligence, in addition to enabling UK policing teams to lead joint investigations with their counterparts in Europe.
Recruiting additional caseworkers to clear the asylum backlog. Alongside this, the party has said that it will “end asylum hotels”, saving billions of pounds.
Establishing a new returns and enforcement unit. The party has said that this unit will have a thousand “additional” personnel. It will aim to fast-track people’s removal to safe countries if they do not have a right to remain in the UK.
Negotiating additional returns agreements. Labour have said that this would enable faster returns, while increasing the number of safe countries to which failed asylum seekers can be rapidly sent back.

What pledges have other major parties made on immigration?

As the polls currently stand, there seems almost zero chance of a party other than Labour or the Conservatives forming the UK Government after the election. Nonetheless, some eye-catching policies have been announced among the other parties:

Reform UK – formerly the Brexit Party – has said that it would freeze all non-essential immigration, resettle zero “illegal” immigrants in the UK, bar student dependants, and raise the National Insurance rate to 20% for foreign workers;
The Liberal Democrats have said that they would invest in officers, training, and technology to combat smuggling, trafficking, and modern slavery. They have also committed to transferring policymaking over work visas and overseas students from the Home Office to other departments;
The Green Party has said that it would scrap the Home Office, make it easier for people to bring their married partners to the UK, and provide safer ways for people to come to the UK if they are escaping danger in their country of origin.

If you have any concerns about the implications of the general election for you, please contact our experts in UK immigration law

Here at Cranbrook Legal, we can understand that whether you are a private individual – such as a prospective or current migrant to the UK – or a decision-maker for an organisation such as an employer, you might have questions or concerns about immigration matters and how the general election may impact upon these.

If so, our central London-based professionals are here to help. Please feel free to call us on 0208 215 0053 for a more in-depth conversation about your situation. You are also welcome to use our online contact form to request a free consultation with us.

General

What will the election in July mean for immigration?

By Amer Zaman

Immigration is clearly one of the major issues for UK voters

Can refugees vote in the 2024 UK election?

What pledges has the governing Conservative Party made on immigration?

What is the UK’s current immigration policy?

What pledges has the opposition Labour Party made on immigration?

What pledges have other major parties made on immigration?

If you have any concerns about the implications of the general election for you, please contact our experts in UK immigration law

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